Emergency Plan Manual

Step 1: Probability of Mishap What is likely to happen in my community? The first step in assessing risk in a community is to conduct a hazard identification exercise. This process uses a scale to determine the probability of different hazards occurring in your community. First, select a length of time for the system lifecycle. You may want to use a period of 12-60 months, as this span is typically used when major organizations set up their planning objectives and timelines and gives sufficient time for rare events to be measured. After the system lifecycle is determined, we complete the following Table : Probability of Occurrence . Each hazard listed on the worksheet should be assessed and assigned a probability score relative to the system lifecycle. Probabilities are classified from 0 to 5 based on the following scale (Fema recommendation): Rate on scale of 5-1 5 being the highest possibility of occurrence or the weakest resources 1 being the least likely to occur or the strongest resources See www.fema.gov for explanation of categories These classifications are based largely upon 1) the historic patterns of occurrence of the hazard in our community and 2) predictive models. When classifying hazards, it is important that we look at those that have the potential to become disasters, but not necessarily the “worst case scenario”. Therefore, we identify those hazards that are large-scale and most likely to occur (based on the geographic, meteorological, and demographic conditions that exist in our community). You may also need to consider hazards that exist in surrounding areas that may have impacts on our community and services. After frequencies for each hazard have been determined and the probability for each has been entered into the worksheet, hazards that pose no credible risk to the region may be ignored.